What does the quiet in Iraq mean?

We are seeing a slow down in hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.

So here is the premise. There seems to be a slowing of attacks by the jihadis in Iraq. I had made some predictions and an appraisal of that and how the hostilities would begin again and in what approximate order. I had a nagging thought in the back of my mind about the tactical value of this to the various al Quaida elements, the tribal and ethnic insurgents, the Sunni and the Shi'a elements. We find that the Sunni are now aligning with the US as much as possible. We also find that the Shi'a are gravitating to the protection of their Iranian supporters. All Islamist insurgent activity has taken a down turn. It is much like the events of a stand down by the US Army to allow for some rest, resupply, changing tactics and rethinking strategies. That is essentially what seems to be happening with the Islamists now.

Here that Islamist stand down has a name in a Letter to the Editor of the St. Petersburg, FL Times.

Re: A time for thanks in Iraq | Nov. 22. David Ignatius column

Know the Enemy

On Thanksgiving Day, David Ignatius "suspects" the Iranians new policy of accommodation is a tactical shift. If he used (sic.) his library card, he would know it for sure.

Sulh is the jihadi term for interim peace. For centuries sulh was a diplomatic tool used by the supreme commander until the political balance became favorable once again for war. The logic of jihad is to wage fatah (invasion/occupation) when possible, conclude sulh when needed, and go back to jihad when conditions are right again.

In the Islamists' (sic.) ideology, they cannot accommodate a peace movement in principle. In their thinking, they are allowed to accept an interim cessation of war and work in sophisticated ways to stop wars they cannot win. Based on 1,400 years of history, that is what is happening.

Americans once understood the lethal language of our ideological foes: blitskrieg, kamikaze, arbeit macht frei.

Gary Harrington, St Petersburg

This is a good piece for information. The composition and grammar are a little stilted but it is still readable. We tend to lump all Islamists into an Arab mold. That is far from helpful in understanding just how such an insurgency directed at the US is to be understood. The US has a history of holding out a hand to movements that seem to be in pre-democratic modes and in the end those movements are sold out and left to struggle with local repressive governments with the US going over to the repressing side.

It happened to the Iranians in 1953 with help from the CIA. It most recently happened in Iraq when various elements of Iraqi tribalists, both Sunni and Shi'a rose up against Saddam Hussein after the first Gulf War.

So. We may say then that this laying low is a structural and systemic agreement by the various insurgent elements in concert. We have driven them apart in Sunni Anbar Province, from the previously insurgent friendly tribal elements. We may also draw on observations, that the Shi'a in Basra and along the Iranian border are drawing themselves together and preparing for a possible attack on Iran by US Naval and Air Fosrce elements. The Shi'a would then be in position for a counter stroke against any cross border incursions by US ground forces and US friendly (albeit, Sunni Arab) elements. Islam not withstanding, Arabs and Persians have no love lost on each other. Just as the Arab W'ahabist have no love lost on fellow non-Arab Muslims. They will come together in the face of a common enemy, the US, but otherwise they have their own private ancient vendettas and infighting going on.

There is so much more to explain and flesh out but there is so much in the news and on the web that is crafted for a particular point of view and expectations of outcomes. The best prepare combat arms units I was ever around in the field were always adjusting and preparing for combatants to pop up out of flat ground. The VC and the NVA both were very good at frustrating the best preparations made by any unit in the field. We may expect that the very fluid Islamists will come back in ways we never expected. The US must be prepared for any event. It is not time to rest on the laurels of quiet. We must be very liberal in our thinking and prepared to move as the situation dictates. To resort to a conservative set of limitations of SOP, what has worked before, or what is in the budget is to fail as we have never before failed.

Lantern Bearer

Please, be attentive, be intelligent, be reasonable, be responsible.

You have no business to believe me.

I ask you to believe nothing that you cannot verify for yourself. . .

If you have not a critical mind, your visit here is useless.

G.I. Gurdjieff